Sadly, prediction on risk borne out - Dr. Gleb Tsipursky @gleb_tsipursky
Sadly, my prediction about the serious risk of a new variant-caused surge in the US starting in Q2 2021 has been borne out, per the white paper on new COVID strains I sent you in early January. We’re clearly entering the fourth surge, with the highly infectious and more deadly UK variant leading to a growing number of cases, soon to be followed by hospitalizations and deaths. Yet despite the surge, as I said would happen in the white paper, most states are loosening restrictions and vaccine hesitancy is causing more and more unfilled vaccination slots.
In short, we’re in trouble. Misjudging such long-term risks from clear trendlines is typical for us as human beings due to the mental blindspots (cognitive biases) that cause us to make dangerous judgment errors. I talked about this in my recent article on why we misjudge the risks of the new strains.
As a reminder, my white paper on the new strains has suggestions for what steps to take to protect from the fourth surge, and the suggestions have aged well. For a more in-depth look at optimizing telework in particular, see my most recent white paper on this topic. Hope the insights prove helpful for you, and any others with whom you might choose to share them (I give you full permission to do so).
- CEO of the future-proofing consultancy Disaster Avoidance Experts, LLC, which specializes in helping forward-looking leaders avoid dangerous threats and missed opportunities.
- A best-selling author, I wrote Never Go With Your Gut: How Pioneering Leaders Make the Best Decisions and Avoid Business Disasters (Career Press, 2019), The Truth Seeker’s Handbook: A Science-Based Guide (Intentional Insights, 2017), The Blindspots Between Us: How to Overcome Unconscious Cognitive Bias and Build Better Relationships (New Harbinger, 2020), and Resilience: Adapt and Plan for the New Abnormal of the COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (Changemakers Books, 2020).
- Cutting-edge thought leader, with over 550 articles and 450 interviews in prominent venues such as Fortune, Time, Fast Company, CBS News, Newsweek, Scientific American, Psychology Today, Business Insider, Inc. Magazine, NPR, CNBC, and USA Today
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