People are only shopping for food? ☕️ Fragile situation
In the coronavirus era, new economic data is like
looking at the cockroach you whacked with a magazine. It’s unpleasant, but you
have to do it just in case. So we’ll deliver yesterday’s March retail sales
numbers in the most digestible ways we can think of.
- Generally,
the sector was like a dolphin plunging into the sea—overall
sales dropped 8.7% monthly, the biggest dip since the government started
keeping track in 1992.
To break it down, let’s start with the bright spots. March
grocery sales bounced almost 27%.
- Health
and personal care stores and general merchandise stores also fared well,
growing sales 4.3% and 6.4%, respectively.
Some economists said grocery’s surge may not last now
that we’re all stocked up on kimchi. But grocery has long been considered
recession-proof, and with restaurants closed there’s reason to believe demand
will stay strong.
Now for the darker spots
Before we get there, remember that March hit the retail
sector with a double whammy: 1) stores shuttered to comply with government
orders and 2) layoffs from other industries hurt consumer spending. But again,
we’ll try to keep it pleasant.
- Clothing
sales were like a maple leaf drifting off its
bough...halfway to the ground. They dropped 50%.
- Furniture/home
furnishings
and food services/drinking places were like a pair of
pelicans diving for fish, both dropping nearly 27%.
Big picture: March may have come out like a lion,
but we all know April is the cruelest month. Barclays Chief U.S. Economist
Michael Gapen told Bloomberg, “the April data is likely to be even worse because
for a good half of March, things were still open.”



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