People are only shopping for food? ☕️ Fragile situation

In the coronavirus era, new economic data is like looking at the cockroach you whacked with a magazine. It’s unpleasant, but you have to do it just in case. So we’ll deliver yesterday’s March retail sales numbers in the most digestible ways we can think of.

Generally, the sector was like a dolphin plunging into the sea—overall sales dropped 8.7% monthly, the biggest dip since the government started keeping track in 1992.

To break it down, let’s start with the bright spots. March grocery sales bounced almost 27%.

Health and personal care stores and general merchandise stores also fared well, growing sales 4.3% and 6.4%, respectively.

Some economists said grocery’s surge may not last now that we’re all stocked up on kimchi. But grocery has long been considered recession-proof, and with restaurants closed there’s reason to believe demand will stay strong.

Now for the darker spots

Before we get there, remember that March hit the retail sector with a double whammy: 1) stores shuttered to comply with government orders and 2) layoffs from other industries hurt consumer spending. But again, we’ll try to keep it pleasant.

Clothing sales were like a maple leaf drifting off its bough...halfway to the ground. They dropped 50%.
Furniture/home furnishings and food services/drinking places were like a pair of pelicans diving for fish, both dropping nearly 27%.

Big picture: March may have come out like a lion, but we all know April is the cruelest month. Barclays Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen told Bloomberg, “the April data is likely to be even worse because for a good half of March, things were still open.”